Abstract

Recent global ocean-atmosphere monitoring data indicate that the air-sea coupling system over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific continues to strengthen rapidly. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assesses that the probability of an extreme El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–2027 exceeds 90%, with the potential to break the historical intensity record since 1950. In July 2026, the upper-ocean heat content of the equatorial Pacific reached the highest monthly value since systematic observations began in 1979, providing sufficient thermal support for the continuous intensification of the event. The El Niño peak is expected to occur from late autumn to early winter 2026, with impacts extending to spring 2027.

Likely to be the strongest El Niño on record, this climatic event will reshape global precipitation and temperature patterns, increasing the risks of droughts, floods, storms, and low-temperature disasters in major agricultural regions across the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Americas, causing systematic impacts on global crop cultivation, animal husbandry, fisheries, and aquaculture. Millions of people worldwide are already facing severe food insecurity, with prominent risks of regional agricultural production reduction and global food price fluctuations. Rain-fed agricultural areas and smallholder production systems in developing countries are the most vulnerable links to El Niño shocks.

As monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and global meteorological institutions, the ongoing El Niño has adversely affected wheat, rice, and corn production in Latin America. Rice planting in smallholder areas of southern China faces intensified pest and disease risks due to cross-border pest migration driven by climatic anomalies. The World Academy of Agricultural Sciences (WAAS) calls on global agricultural research, governance, and industrial entities to take proactive preventive actions, strengthen monitoring and early warning, upgrade infrastructure, reserve stress-resistant crop varieties, and deepen international cooperation to mitigate systemic threats to global food security.

I. Core Monitoring Facts and Event Assessment

According to the latest NOAA assessment on August 13, 2026, key indicators confirm the rapid strengthening of El Niño: the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reached +2.20°C, far exceeding the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) and the standard for strong events. The record-breaking upper-ocean heat content in July 2026 verifies that the warming is a persistent climatic anomaly driven by deep warm water accumulation rather than short-term surface fluctuation. During the critical October–December 2026 window, the event has a 69% chance of surpassing all El Niño events recorded since 1950.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), China National Climate Center, ECMWF, and the U.S. National Weather Service unanimously confirm that this event is likely to be the strongest in 150 years. The continuous negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reflects intensified positive air-sea coupling. The event will peak in late autumn to early winter 2026 and persist until spring 2027. Notably, extreme El Niño only represents tropical Pacific air-sea anomalies; regional disasters are modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole, Atlantic sea temperature anomalies, and local atmospheric circulation, requiring dynamic risk assessment. Key ongoing monitoring indicators include the Niño 3.4 index, subsurface heat content, equatorial trade wind intensity, and Indian Ocean Dipole phase.

II. Probability Assessment and Core Characteristics

NOAA data shows a 96% probability of El Niño from December 2026 to February 2027, with a 75% chance of moderate or stronger intensity and a 25% chance of extreme intensity. This event features cross-year, cross-regional, and cross-sectoral spillover effects, exerting sustained pressure on global agricultural production, food supply, agricultural trade, and rural livelihoods from autumn 2026 to summer 2027.

Significant uncertainties remain in risk assessment: regional disaster outcomes result from multi-ocean climatic interactions and cannot be simply inferred from historical cases. Disaster losses can be effectively mitigated by sound infrastructure, stress-resistant varieties, and early warning systems. Smallholder rain-fed agriculture in developing countries is the most vulnerable sector. The cross-year impact requires full-cycle risk prevention covering the 2026 autumn harvest and 2027 spring sowing seasons.

III. Regional Agricultural Risk Assessment

(1) Asia-Pacific High-Risk Regions

Southeast Asia and Australia face severe and prolonged droughts with significantly reduced precipitation. Multiple monitoring sites in Indonesia have experienced rainless conditions for over 60 days, and drought in eastern Australia will persist into the fourth quarter. Drought suppresses the output of tropical cash crops, including palm oil, natural rubber, and sugarcane, extending crop harvesting suspension periods and increasing wildfire risks. Major rice exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam suffer from irrigation water shortages and declining rice productivity.

In South Asia, global warming amplifies the El Niño-induced suppression of summer monsoon precipitation, causing abnormal rainfall fluctuations and drought stress that hinder the sowing and growth of wheat and rice, raising major crop yield reduction risks.

In China, the East Asian winter monsoon will weaken, leading to a warmer-than-normal winter overall, but with frequent cold-warm alternations and periodic extreme cold waves. Southern China needs to guard against continuous rainfall, freezing rain, facility agricultural damage, forest frost damage, field waterlogging diseases, and cross-border pest infestations in rice fields. Northern China must strengthen cold protection for greenhouse facilities and livestock breeding, and prevent drought-flood alternation hazards affecting winter wheat and late rice production.

(2) African Regional Risks

The Horn of Africa faces excessive rainfall, floods, and landslides, damaging farmland and pastures and triggering livestock epidemics. Southern Africa is threatened by severe droughts, restricting maize growth and reducing grain output. Over 40 million farmers in southern Africa and 10 million people in eastern Africa are affected, with regional agricultural growth expected to drop by 4%, exacerbating local food insecurity.

(3) American Regional Risks

The west coast of South America (Peru, Ecuador) experiences frequent rainstorms and floods, causing farmland waterlogging and soil degradation, while abnormal sea temperatures disrupt offshore fishery ecosystems. Southern North America faces high waterlogging risks due to excessive precipitation, and central North America suffers from alternating high temperatures and drought, bringing uncertainties to corn and soybean production.

(4) Universal Agricultural and Market Risks

Crop production: Rice and wheat are most sensitive to climatic disturbances; high temperature, drought, and continuous rainfall during flowering significantly reduce seed setting rates. Cash crops, including sugar and oil crops, face amplified price fluctuations, and drought-flood alternation promotes pest migration and outbreaks. Animal husbandry: Drought causes forage shortages and rising breeding costs; floods induce livestock diseases, and high temperatures reduce livestock growth and reproductive efficiency. Fisheries and aquaculture: Sea warming reshapes offshore bait distribution and fluctuates fishing outputs; inland aquaculture faces increased disease risks due to abrupt water environment changes.

Globally, regional production reductions and trade disturbances drive soaring prices of grain, oil, and sugar. Global rice prices hit an 11-year high in July 2026, with 90% of rice-producing regions threatened by drought and annual output expected to hit a 20-year low. JPMorgan estimates that this extreme El Niño may raise global food inflation by 1.5 percentage points, severely impacting food-importing developing countries and increasing the population suffering from severe food insecurity.

IV. Global Collaborative Response Initiatives

(1) Recommendations for National Agricultural Authorities

Establish specialized meteorology-agriculture joint consultation mechanisms to dynamically assess disaster risks and release targeted farming guidance. Preemptively renovate irrigation, drainage, and cold-proof infrastructure, and reserve emergency supplies, including drought-resistant equipment, stress-resistant seeds, and forage. Optimize grain reserve and trade regulation plans to stabilize market supply and protect vulnerable food-insecure groups.

(2) Recommendations for Agricultural Research and Extension Institutions

Promote the demonstration and extension of drought-tolerant, flood-tolerant, and disease-resistant crop varieties, and optimize stress-resistant cultivation technologies. Conduct medium- and long-term pest trend analysis and improve green prevention and control systems. Facilitate cross-border exchange and technical assistance in climate-smart agriculture to support high-risk vulnerable countries.

(3) Recommendations for Agricultural Operators and Farmers

Follow official meteorological early warnings, adjust sowing dates and planting structures flexibly, prioritize water supply for critical crop growth stages, and ensure timely field drainage. Improve cold-proof measures for facility agriculture to prevent sudden frost disasters during warm winters. Strengthen forage reserves and epidemic prevention for animal husbandry, and optimize water quality management and disease control for aquaculture.

(4) WAAS Work Arrangements

Continuously track El Niño evolution and update global agricultural risk reports regularly. Organize transnational and interdisciplinary expert seminars, compile, and globally share standardized agricultural disaster mitigation manuals. Promote cross-border circulation and demonstration of stress-resistant germplasm resources and adaptive agricultural technologies. Advocate for increased international agricultural climate aid to developing countries to prevent climatic anomalies from evolving into systemic humanitarian food crises.