Recent global ocean-atmosphere monitoring data indicate that the air-sea coupling system over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific continues to strengthen rapidly. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assesses that the probability of an extreme El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–2027 exceeds 90%, with the potential to break the historical intensity record since 1950. In July 2026, the upper-ocean heat content of the equatorial Pacific reached the highest monthly value since systematic observations began in 1979, providing sufficient thermal support for the continuous intensification of the event. The El Niño peak is expected to occur from late autumn to early winter 2026, with impacts extending to spring 2027.

As a likely record-breaking extreme climate event, this El Niño will reshape global precipitation and temperature patterns, significantly increasing the risks of droughts, floods, storms, and low-temperature disasters in major agricultural regions across the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Americas. It will cause systematic, cross-year impacts on global crop cultivation, animal husbandry, fisheries, and aquaculture. Millions of people worldwide are already facing severe food insecurity, with prominent risks of regional agricultural production reduction and global food price fluctuations. Rain-fed agricultural areas and smallholder production systems in developing countries are the most vulnerable to El Niño shocks.

As monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and global meteorological institutions, the ongoing El Niño has adversely affected wheat, rice, and corn production in Latin America. Rice planting in smallholder areas of southern China faces intensified pest and disease risks due to cross-border pest migration driven by climatic anomalies. The World Academy of Agricultural Sciences (WAAS) calls on global agricultural research, governance, and industrial entities to take proactive preventive actions, strengthen monitoring and early warning, upgrade infrastructure, reserve stress-resistant crop varieties, and deepen international cooperation to mitigate systemic threats to global food security.

Against the background of global warming, this extreme El Niño event highlights the close correlation between food security and climatic stability. Although climatic disasters and food market risks are inevitable, proactive early warning, scientific disaster prevention, and global collaboration can effectively reduce losses. WAAS will continue to serve as a global think tank and coordination hub, cooperate with global agricultural stakeholders to enhance the climate resilience of the global food system, and safeguard global food security.